AIRLINE SAFETY: Different Carriers, Aircraft Have Widely Varying Crash Rates
Kenneth Howe, Chronicle Staff Writer
Fatal airline accidents, like Monday's crash of Alaska Airlines Flight 261, are rare among the nation's largest carriers, but crash rates vary widely both by carrier and by type of aircraft, according to federal safety statistics.
The top 10 major U.S. airlines generally have excellent air-safety records. On average, they have only about one fatal accident for every 2 million flights, according to AirSafe.com, an Internet site that tracks airline safety using National Transportation Safety Board statistics.
Accident rates differ widely by carrier. Southwest Airlines, for example, has never had a fatal crash. Delta Airlines' record shows one fatal crash for every 3.3 million flights.
By contrast, both Trans World Airlines and Alaska have had a fatal accident for every 1.3 million flights, the worst record among the nation's top carriers.
Crash statistics also show that different types of planes have very different records when it comes to fatal accidents.
Even including Monday's crash, the MD-80 has one of the best safety records of the major airline models being flown today. The McDonnell Douglas airliner has had only about one fatal crash for every 2.5 million flights. That compares favorably with the more recent MD-11, which has a record of one fatal accident for every 233,000 flights, according to AirSafe.com.
But experts warn that statistics alone do not tell the whole story or predict which airline or type of aircraft is safer to fly.
``These accidents are not necessarily a good indicator to predict what will happen in the future,'' said Todd Curtis, who created AirSafe.com.
In part, that is because crashes are relatively infrequent and one accident can radically alter an airline or an airplane's statistics.
Curtis noted, for example, that statistically, at least, Alaska Airlines' accident on Monday moved it from a carrier with one of the best safety records among the top U.S. airlines to the worst.
``Accidents are such complex events that the cause is seldom a matter of just one thing happening,'' said Curtis. ``Almost always, it's a chain of events that go wrong very rapidly.''
The result, he said, is that statistics on different aircraft types, for example, may not reflect the combination of problems that can result in an accident, which may involve the carrier, maintenance practices and crew, as well as the aircraft itself.
``Certainly, I think about which airline I choose, and I always ask what plane I'll be flying,'' said Arthur Wolk, a Philadelphia aviation lawyer and licensed pilot. ``But you have to analyze crash data in the context in which they occurred.''
Wolk observed that the European-built Airbus has a higher accident rate than many other planes. However, he said, the aircraft has been widely used in many Third World countries, where air safety regulations are less stringent and where airlines are often a target of terrorism.
The Airbus A-300, for example, has been involved in eight fatal events since 1976. Four planes crashed, and three were involved in hijackings in which passengers or crew were killed.
The fourth accident happened on July 3, 1988, when Iranair A300 was shot down over the Persian Gulf by a surface-to-air missile from the U.S. Navy cruiser Vincennes. All 16 crew members and 274 passengers were killed.
``You have to be very cautious with statistics,'' said aviation attorney David Rapoport.
``And though it's no comfort to those who have lost a friend or family member in a crash, the overall accident rate in this country has been sufficiently low that people still consider flying a safe method of transportation.''
###
CHART:
AIRLINE FATALITY RATES
Rates of fatal airline incidents (includes causes of death other than accidents) per million flights since 1970:
.
-- Major U.S. and Canadian carriers
Date Fatal
Millions of Fatal of last incident
Airline flights(a) incidents incidents rate(b)
Alaska Airlines/
Horizon Air 4.1 3 2000 0.74
TWA 8.1 6 1996 0.74
Air Canada 4.8 3 1983 0.63
Continental 8.0 5 1997 0.63
US Airways 14.3 8 1994 0.56
American 17.0 9 1999 0.53
United 18.0 9 1997 0.50
Northwest 9.2 4 1993 0.43
Delta 20.0 6 1997 0.30
Southwest 6.3 0 NA 0.00
.
-- Type of aircraft
Date Fatal
Millions of Fatal of last incident
Type flights(a) incidents incidents rate(b)
Fokker F-28 8.5 20 2000 2.35
Boeing DC-10 7.6 15 2000 1.97
Boeing 747 14.8 23 2000 1.55
Airbus A-300 8.0 8 2000 1.00
Boeing DC-9 55.5 42 2000 0.76
Boeing 737-1/200 49.0 35 2000 0.71
Boeing 727 70.0 46 2000 0.66
Boeing 737-3/4/500 27.0 11 2000 0.41
Boeing MD-80 20.0 8 2000 0.40(c)
Saab 340 9.0 3 2000 0.33
.
(a) - Estimated number of flights since 1970
(b) - Number of fatal incidents per million flights
(c) - Includes Monday's crash of Flight 261
.
Source: AirSafe.com
CHRONICLE GRAPHIC